Bitcoin Value Calculator

Bitcoin Value Calculator

As the crypto bear market drags into the 4th quarter of 2018, it helps to assess where the fundamental value of bitcoin lies, in order for us not to lose sight of the underlying investment thesis we have subscribed to. A systematic approach is outlined in this article we found: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209196-bitcoin-value-indicator-october-2018 Here’s a summary, but please read the full article and all its links for maximum benefit.

The 3 metrics of bitcoin’s fundamental value are:

  1. Number of unique addresses
  2. Hash rate
  3. Total transactions

The first is a proxy for the number of users on the network. More users, more wallets, more value according to Metcalfe’s Law.

The second measures the amount of computing power that secures the bitcoin blockchain. In log scale, the hash rate and the market cap of bitcoin are extremely positively correlated.

The third argues that the more transactions there are, the longer and more secure the blockchain, the higher the adoption, and therefore the higher the value.

What does the data say? (If you’re interested in the graphs and regressions, click through to the full article, but the conclusions are listed here) Unique addresses: The low point in unique addresses was in April when BTC was trading slightly under $7,000. Today the number of unique address is higher while the price of BTC is lower. This represents an increase in value. Hash rate: This is undeniably surging, implying miners are still supporting the bitcoin network even as the price has fallen throughout the year. You can get this data on blockchain.com.Total transactions: for the 6th straight month in a row, the number of transactions per month has been increasing. Price is obviously lower today than where it was 6 months ago. Putting it all together, this may signify that the bottom is near, and a value recovery is underway. We will still rely on sound technical analysis to identify long term entries, but for now, the health of the market is slowly improving, even if sentiment hasn’t.

DENNIS HUI – Trade Crypto Live Member

Venezuela’s Maduro Forces Banks to Adopt Crypto

Venezuela’s Maduro Forces Banks to Adopt Crypto

Venezuela’s Maduro Forces Banks to Adopt Crypto

VENEZUELA
If Venezuela is not on your news radar, it should be. The timeline over the last year regarding the government takeover by “President” Maduro is enough to make the average person more than pissed off. Venezuela has one of the largest (if not the largest) oil reserves in the world. The country is somehow experiencing an economic collapse and only putting out 1/3 of the oil it used to. That’s what happens when corruption runs rampant and you put political friends in positions they have no business being in. With oil being Venezuela’s biggest, and for the most part the only source of revenue, it makes you scratch your head as to why the country is starving to death and riots are rampant.

FORCE THE USE
Maduro’s brilliant idea to fix it all? Take billions of dollars in loans from the socialist friendly countries of Russia and China, then create a cryptocurrency backed by Venezuelan oil, the Petro. He didn’t stop there though; Maduro has announced that all Venezuelan banks MUST accept the Petro as a unit of account. Nothing helps along mass adoption like forcing every bank in your country to use it. Petro was unveiled back in December but not without controversy. Maduro claimed to have raised billions of dollars in a pre-sale of Petro, though he hasn’t produced any evidence of this.

TIES TO OIL
Each Petro is backed by a barrel of Venezuelan oil, tied directly to the price of oil. With 100 million Petro, and the average price of Venezuelan’s oil being $60, that leaves the supply of Petro worth $6 Billion. Maduro says they created it in response to sanctions from the US, however, details on Petro are very scarce. The official site, http://petro.gob.ve/index-en.html#home, says the State run crypto had the biggest ICO in history. The details and success of Petro are yet to be seen, but when the government makes the crypto and forces the banks to use it, it’s clear they have left the beaten path of what crypto was created for.

Jason Macool

“There is a fine line between patience and laziness. It takes experience and wisdom to know the difference. I would rather jump into something too quickly than miss the opportunity forever” – Me

China’s Crypto Ban Is Spreading

China’s Crypto Ban Is Spreading

China’s Crypto Ban Is Spreading

CRYPTO BAN
Last week, in an article you can read HERE, we talked about China lowering the ban hammer on the Chaoyang District. The ban basically stopped commercial companies from advertising or promoting crypto events. The ban included online advertising of ICOs and trading services as well as physical events such as conferences and ICO parties. Now that ban has been extended to the Guangzhou Development District—a special economic zone in southern China, close to Hong Kong.

SPREADING THE BAN
When the first ban went up, everyone made a point to say it was just the one district. That was true, but a little foresight would make it clear to anyone it was going to spread. China has been cracking down on crypto steadily over the last year, all while pumping millions into blockchain technology and research.

RIPPLE EFFECT
From banning crypto trading related content on WeChat to one of China’s major search engines, Baidu, closing several crypto related chat forums, it is clear China’s stance on crypto. China is such a large player in the financial markets that each time they bring about a new restriction or ban, the effect is felt across the crypto market. It will be interesting to see the next district to be “saved” by this crypto ban.

Jason Macool
“There is a fine line between patience and laziness. It takes experience and wisdom to know the difference. I would rather jump into something too quickly than miss the opportunity forever” – Me