Crypto & The Real World: An Economic/Market Macro Case Study
One case study of a TOTAL SQUARE-UP of one of the most prominent Oil stock in Thailand.
At its height the price was around $7…It bottomed at $1.4
Event background — When the prices of oil crashed back in 2016 globally…who remembers that?
Company background — PTTEP Its an oil exploration company. The company had massive cash savings. The balance sheet was GOLD. It was FINANCIALLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST COMPANY in Thailand (but the market & TA and OIL FUDD does not gives a shit). It is state owned.
Arrow 1 — It was where my friend bought the DIP with 100% leverage. Its not small money. It was well over $250k of leverage.
Arrow 2 – TOTAL ANNIHILATION SQUARE-UP. CLASSIC INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER.
Point – My friend is an ULTRA CONSERVATIVE smart investor/businessman. He does his due diligence more than 90% in this group for sure. This PTTEP company had one of the strongest fundamentals in Thailand. Yet, when the oil FUUD came in, the oil market crashed and HE BOUGHT THE DIP at $3.49 with 100% leverage. He thought the price went down by so much it was a good time to buy one of the FUNDAMENTALLY STRONGEST COMPANY in Thailand. He had ZERO KNOWLEDGE of TA.
Needless to say, he panicked when it went below $2.20 as the bank would FORCE SELL all his stocks if there was a 50% – 60% price LOSS. This would have left him at a LOSS plus he would have had to PAY BACK THE DEBT.
Thankfully, his father came to his rescue and he TOPPED UP his balance with extra extra cash. So there was NO FORCE SELL. But now my ULTRA CONSERVATIVE friend realized the mistake he made and how bloody LUCKY he was to have a CASH RICH dad. He thought he BOUGHT THE DIP. He didnt know back then HOW LOW THE PRICE CAN GO. He also learnt NEVER TO TAKE ON LEVERAGE AGAIN.
The price eventually recovered and he is now in profit….BUT….here’s the deal.
You see HAD HIS DAD NOT COME TO HIS RESCUE….he would be in DEEP DEEP SHIT that would have been really difficult for him to recover from. The MARKET MAKERS were going for all the STOP LOSSES.(LEVERAGE FORCE SELL) and my friend was at a perfect place to GET REKTED,
With all due respect, I doubt OUR DADS will come to our rescue if this happened to most of us. MOST ADULTS DONT EVEN HAVE PROPER SAVINGS.
SQUARE UP — You know when Scott says “SQUARE-UP”…..let this chart be a reminder/example what a fuc*** SQUARE-UP really means….This chart shows a massive square-up of ONE OF THE MOST FUNDAMENTALLY STRONGEST company thats GENERATING PROFITS.
How does this compare with Bitcoin — You see, when Schink Scott says BITCOIN HAS NOT DONE BOTTOMING….why is it easy for me to believe him? Because i look at the past SUCH AS THIS OIL CHART and i see my friend who was ULTRA CONSERVATIVE, really smart, does hours and hours of reading (which 90% in crypto world dont do really) buying the dip.
Now, obviously i think crypto has MUCH MUCH more dumb investors than the equities market (sorry, that’s the truth in an unregulated market., and you have crooks all around you shilling shit)
Here’s the deal. Lots of CONSERVATIVE people ARE going to buy this crypto dip WITH LEVERAGE NOT KNOWING how LOW CAN THIS SHIT GO. (Scott says…picking a fuc*** bottom is going to rekt you. Let this chart show you how)
You think the entire market cap cant go to $140 billion? Oh hell why not? It came all the way from $20 billion back in Jan 2017….None of the cryptos are generating any value or profits or has any world use case at the moment. Sure as hell not like OIL.
Conclusion — Fundamentals does not equals good investing. TA is TA. Fundamentals are fundamentals. Fundamentals are not going to stop TA from doing its work. You need to look at both before investing. Looking at small Economic Macros such as this will leave clues about what could possibly happen to crypto. You continue to test your macros against Scotts TA….so far…it’s been matching up pretty good and makes alot alot of sense. There are other macros such as geopolitics & feds policy. History leaves clues. Take Scott very very seriously. He’s one of the best out there. His TA experience goes back to before I started loving Economics and History. While these Dumb New Age crypto TA youtube and twitter crooks who does not understand the basic fundamentals of economics continue to grow (will get alot of people Rekted); Those people REKTED will be the gains for those who are patient as per what we see in history.
We’re in a war my friends.
Crooks vs The Good.
Knowledge vs Greed.
Laziness vs Due Diligence.
Wisdom vs Instant Gratitude
The choice is yours.